Then, what are good jobs? Will today's good jobs remain next decades?
Nowadays, there're many who don't believe that.
Big changes on the labor market are coming - The Software Substitution.
Bill Gates have warned people that,
"Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses … it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model."
(March. 13, 2013, during a conversation in the American Enterprise Institute.)
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne from Oxford Martin School analysed 702 detailed occupations, with US labor market data.
According to their estimation, about 47% of total US employment is at risk.
Search the estimated probability of computerization for each job with this app.
- The list of occupations does not include all of existing jobs.
- The estimation is just showing a technological capabilities, not actual possibility to be automated.
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne,
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION? (2013)